+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Approximate C.M. transit times of the impact feature at -57 deg. South For more information about our project, visit http://jupos.org A time-lapse animation of polar projection maps showing the development of the impact feature was published on: http://www.ceastronomy.org/gallery/main.php?g2_itemId=6848 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Updated forecast of September 09 ================================ The dark impact complex still persists but has contracted. Because only a few hi-res observations are available from early September, recent changes could not be followed in detail. The very(!) approximate forecast below relates to the p. and f. end of the main complex, ignoring possible "offshoots". --- Preceding (eastern) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.09.09 21:12 Object longitude: L2 = 184,3° - 0,4560°/d * (T - 2009 Sep 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Sep 10,0 ... 2009 Sep 21,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Sep 10 03:47 ( 180°) 13:42 ( 180°) 23:38 ( 180°) 2009 Sep 11 09:33 ( 180°) 19:28 ( 179°) 2009 Sep 12 05:24 ( 180°) 15:19 ( 179°) 2009 Sep 13 01:14 ( 179°) 11:10 ( 179°) 21:05 ( 179°) 2009 Sep 14 07:00 ( 178°) 16:56 ( 179°) 2009 Sep 15 02:51 ( 178°) 12:46 ( 178°) 22:42 ( 178°) 2009 Sep 16 08:37 ( 178°) 18:32 ( 177°) 2009 Sep 17 04:28 ( 177°) 14:23 ( 177°) 2009 Sep 18 00:18 ( 177°) 10:14 ( 177°) 20:09 ( 176°) 2009 Sep 19 06:04 ( 176°) 16:00 ( 176°) 2009 Sep 20 01:55 ( 176°) 11:50 ( 175°) 21:46 ( 176°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- --- Following (western) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.09.09 21:12 Object longitude: L2 = 221,7° - 0,4808°/d * (T - 2009 Sep 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Sep 10,0 ... 2009 Sep 21,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Sep 10 04:48 ( 217°) 14:44 ( 218°) 2009 Sep 11 00:39 ( 217°) 10:34 ( 217°) 20:30 ( 217°) 2009 Sep 12 06:25 ( 217°) 16:20 ( 216°) 2009 Sep 13 02:16 ( 216°) 12:11 ( 216°) 22:06 ( 216°) 2009 Sep 14 08:02 ( 216°) 17:57 ( 215°) 2009 Sep 15 03:52 ( 215°) 13:48 ( 215°) 23:43 ( 215°) 2009 Sep 16 09:38 ( 214°) 19:33 ( 214°) 2009 Sep 17 05:29 ( 214°) 15:24 ( 214°) 2009 Sep 18 01:19 ( 213°) 11:15 ( 214°) 21:10 ( 213°) 2009 Sep 19 07:05 ( 213°) 17:01 ( 213°) 2009 Sep 20 02:56 ( 213°) 12:52 ( 213°) 22:47 ( 212°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 31 ============================= There are no distinct p. end f. ends any more. The impact feature has dissipated over approx. 70 degs. (~2 hours) in longitude, and further weakened. The ephemeris below relates to an oblique streak which is comparatively dark and located near the centre of the affected longitude range. WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.31 20:58 Object longitude: L2 = 204,4° - 0,0277°/d * (T - 2009 Sep 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Sep 01,0 ... 2009 Sep 11,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Sep 01 02:03 ( 205°) 11:58 ( 204°) 21:54 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 02 07:50 ( 205°) 17:45 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 03 03:41 ( 204°) 13:36 ( 204°) 23:32 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 04 09:28 ( 205°) 19:23 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 05 05:19 ( 204°) 15:14 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 06 01:10 ( 204°) 11:06 ( 204°) 21:01 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 07 06:57 ( 204°) 16:53 ( 205°) 2009 Sep 08 02:48 ( 204°) 12:44 ( 204°) 22:39 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 09 08:35 ( 204°) 18:31 ( 204°) 2009 Sep 10 04:26 ( 204°) 14:22 ( 204°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 23 ============================= The impact complex has remarkably faded, and lost any clear centre. Now it mainly consists of two or three faint streaks whose overall p. and f. ends are the basis for the transit estimates below. Isolated dark offshoots could still exist outside, especially in Eastern direction. --- Preceding (eastern) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.23 21:26 Object longitude: L2 = 199,0° - 0,5821°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 24,0 ... 2009 Sep 01,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 24 05:09 ( 194°) 15:04 ( 194°) 2009 Aug 25 00:59 ( 193°) 10:54 ( 193°) 20:50 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 26 06:45 ( 193°) 16:40 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 27 02:35 ( 192°) 12:31 ( 192°) 22:26 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 28 08:21 ( 192°) 18:16 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 29 04:11 ( 191°) 14:07 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 30 00:02 ( 191°) 09:57 ( 190°) 19:52 ( 190°) 2009 Aug 31 05:47 ( 190°) 15:43 ( 190°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- --- Following (western) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.23 21:26 Object longitude: L2 = 226,1° + 0,2436°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 24,0 ... 2009 Sep 01,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 24 06:06 ( 228°) 16:01 ( 228°) 2009 Aug 25 01:57 ( 228°) 11:53 ( 229°) 21:49 ( 229°) 2009 Aug 26 07:44 ( 228°) 17:40 ( 229°) 2009 Aug 27 03:36 ( 229°) 13:32 ( 229°) 23:28 ( 229°) 2009 Aug 28 09:23 ( 229°) 19:19 ( 229°) 2009 Aug 29 05:15 ( 229°) 15:11 ( 230°) 2009 Aug 30 01:06 ( 229°) 11:02 ( 230°) 20:58 ( 230°) 2009 Aug 31 06:54 ( 230°) 16:50 ( 230°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 19 ============================= The impact mark has become more complex and dynamic over the last week, especially to the East and North of its apparent core. I stop computing predictions for p. and f. ends, and focus on the dark core situated near the f. end. You have to start observing 30-60 minutes earlier to see the Eastern tails central. WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.19 15:00 Object longitude: L2 = 222,0° + 0,1657°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 19,0 ... 2009 Aug 30,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 19 06:49 ( 223°) 16:45 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 20 02:41 ( 223°) 12:36 ( 223°) 22:32 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 21 08:28 ( 223°) 18:23 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 22 04:19 ( 223°) 14:15 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 23 00:11 ( 224°) 10:06 ( 223°) 20:02 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 24 05:58 ( 224°) 15:53 ( 223°) 2009 Aug 25 01:49 ( 224°) 11:45 ( 224°) 21:41 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 26 07:36 ( 224°) 17:32 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 27 03:28 ( 224°) 13:23 ( 224°) 23:19 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 28 09:15 ( 224°) 19:11 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 29 05:06 ( 224°) 15:02 ( 224°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 12 ============================= No significant change since the 8th. --- Preceding (eastern) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.12 20:04 Object longitude: L2 = 191,8° - 0,3662°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 12,0 ... 2009 Aug 24,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 12 05:15 ( 193°) 15:10 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 13 01:06 ( 193°) 11:01 ( 192°) 20:56 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 14 06:52 ( 192°) 16:47 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 15 12:38 ( 192°) 22:33 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 16 08:29 ( 192°) 18:24 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 17 04:19 ( 191°) 14:15 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 18 00:10 ( 191°) 10:05 ( 191°) 20:01 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 19 05:56 ( 190°) 15:51 ( 190°) 2009 Aug 20 01:47 ( 190°) 11:42 ( 190°) 21:37 ( 190°) 2009 Aug 21 07:33 ( 190°) 17:28 ( 190°) 2009 Aug 22 03:23 ( 189°) 13:19 ( 189°) 23:14 ( 189°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- --- Following (western) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.12 20:08 Object longitude: L2 = 225,4° + 0,1720°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 12,0 ... 2009 Aug 24,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 12 06:08 ( 225°) 16:04 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 13 01:59 ( 225°) 11:55 ( 225°) 21:51 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 14 07:46 ( 225°) 17:42 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 15 03:38 ( 225°) 13:33 ( 225°) 23:29 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 16 09:25 ( 226°) 19:21 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 17 05:16 ( 226°) 15:12 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 18 01:08 ( 226°) 11:03 ( 226°) 20:59 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 19 06:55 ( 226°) 16:51 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 20 02:46 ( 226°) 12:42 ( 226°) 22:38 ( 227°) 2009 Aug 21 08:33 ( 226°) 18:29 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 22 04:25 ( 227°) 14:21 ( 227°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 08 ============================= The dark impact mark has split into three main segments. Its p. end has decelerated in terms of rotational period, that is, the total length of the complex in longitude is increasing less than observed earlier this month. --- Preceding (eastern) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.08 15:28 Object longitude: L2 = 191,7° - 0,3707°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 08,0 ... 2009 Aug 19,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 08 02:02 ( 195°) 11:57 ( 194°) 21:52 ( 194°) 2009 Aug 09 07:48 ( 194°) 17:43 ( 194°) 2009 Aug 10 03:38 ( 193°) 13:34 ( 194°) 23:29 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 11 09:24 ( 193°) 19:20 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 12 05:15 ( 193°) 15:10 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 13 01:06 ( 193°) 11:01 ( 192°) 20:56 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 14 06:52 ( 192°) 16:47 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 15 02:42 ( 192°) 12:38 ( 192°) 22:33 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 16 08:28 ( 191°) 18:24 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 17 04:19 ( 191°) 14:14 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 18 00:10 ( 191°) 10:05 ( 191°) 20:00 ( 190°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- --- Following (western) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.08 15:29 Object longitude: L2 = 224,9° + 0,1605°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 15,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 08,0 ... 2009 Aug 19,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 08 02:50 ( 224°) 12:46 ( 224°) 22:42 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 09 08:37 ( 224°) 18:33 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 10 04:29 ( 224°) 14:24 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 11 00:20 ( 224°) 10:16 ( 224°) 20:11 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 12 06:07 ( 224°) 16:03 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 13 01:58 ( 224°) 11:54 ( 224°) 21:50 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 14 07:46 ( 225°) 17:41 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 15 03:37 ( 225°) 13:33 ( 225°) 23:28 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 16 09:24 ( 225°) 19:20 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 17 05:15 ( 225°) 15:11 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 18 01:07 ( 225°) 11:03 ( 226°) 20:58 ( 225°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of August 05 ============================= Since the dark impact mark has further elongated and begins to disintegrate, I give separate estimates for its p. and f. end. These times can only be approximate, especially at later days. --- Preceding (eastern) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.05 11:40 Object longitude: L2 = 201,4° - 1,0143°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 05,0 ... 2009 Aug 16,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 05 04:38 ( 198°) 14:33 ( 197°) 2009 Aug 06 00:28 ( 197°) 10:23 ( 197°) 20:17 ( 196°) 2009 Aug 07 06:12 ( 195°) 16:07 ( 195°) 2009 Aug 08 02:02 ( 195°) 11:57 ( 194°) 21:52 ( 194°) 2009 Aug 09 07:47 ( 194°) 17:42 ( 193°) 2009 Aug 10 03:37 ( 193°) 13:31 ( 192°) 23:26 ( 192°) 2009 Aug 11 09:21 ( 191°) 19:16 ( 191°) 2009 Aug 12 05:11 ( 190°) 15:06 ( 190°) 2009 Aug 13 01:01 ( 190°) 10:56 ( 189°) 20:51 ( 189°) 2009 Aug 14 06:46 ( 189°) 16:40 ( 188°) 2009 Aug 15 02:35 ( 187°) 12:30 ( 187°) 22:25 ( 187°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- --- Following (western) end: WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.08.05 11:41 Object longitude: L2 = 222,8° + 0,2158°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Aug 05,0 ... 2009 Aug 16,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Aug 05 05:21 ( 224°) 15:17 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 06 01:12 ( 224°) 11:08 ( 224°) 21:04 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 07 06:59 ( 224°) 16:55 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 08 02:51 ( 224°) 12:47 ( 225°) 22:42 ( 224°) 2009 Aug 09 08:38 ( 224°) 18:34 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 10 04:30 ( 225°) 14:25 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 11 00:21 ( 225°) 10:17 ( 225°) 20:13 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 12 06:08 ( 225°) 16:04 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 13 02:00 ( 225°) 11:55 ( 225°) 21:51 ( 225°) 2009 Aug 14 07:47 ( 226°) 17:43 ( 226°) 2009 Aug 15 03:38 ( 225°) 13:34 ( 226°) 23:30 ( 226°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of July 30 =========================== Very similar to the previous prediction. UT's and longitudes still refer to the apparent centre of the dark feature while it has spread out into an elongated streak some 16 degs long. WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.07.30 21:01 Object longitude: L2 = 214,0° - 0,1127°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Jul 31,0 ... 2009 Aug 10,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Jul 31 05:58 ( 214°) 15:54 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 01 01:49 ( 214°) 11:45 ( 214°) 21:40 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 02 07:36 ( 214°) 17:31 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 03 03:27 ( 214°) 13:22 ( 214°) 23:18 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 04 09:13 ( 214°) 19:09 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 05 05:04 ( 213°) 15:00 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 06 00:55 ( 213°) 10:51 ( 214°) 20:46 ( 213°) 2009 Aug 07 06:42 ( 213°) 16:37 ( 213°) 2009 Aug 08 02:33 ( 213°) 12:28 ( 213°) 22:24 ( 213°) 2009 Aug 09 08:19 ( 213°) 18:15 ( 213°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of July 28 =========================== The prograde drift of -0.3 deg/day vs System 2 as indicated in the data of last week cannot be sustained, and must be reduced to a value closer to System 2. WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.07.28 21:22 Object longitude: L2 = 214,3° - 0,1343°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Jul 29,0 ... 2009 Aug 08,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Jul 29 04:21 ( 215°) 14:17 ( 215°) 2009 Jul 30 00:12 ( 214°) 10:08 ( 215°) 20:03 ( 214°) 2009 Jul 31 05:59 ( 215°) 15:54 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 01 01:50 ( 215°) 11:45 ( 214°) 21:41 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 02 07:36 ( 214°) 17:32 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 03 03:27 ( 214°) 13:23 ( 214°) 23:18 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 04 09:14 ( 214°) 19:09 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 05 05:05 ( 214°) 15:00 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 06 00:56 ( 214°) 10:51 ( 214°) 20:47 ( 214°) 2009 Aug 07 06:42 ( 213°) 16:38 ( 214°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Updated forecast of July 26 =========================== WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.07.26 19:56 Object longitude: L2 = 211,9° - 0,3103°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Jul 27,0 ... 2009 Aug 06,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Jul 27 02:41 ( 213°) 12:37 ( 214°) 22:32 ( 213°) 2009 Jul 28 08:28 ( 213°) 18:23 ( 213°) 2009 Jul 29 04:18 ( 213°) 14:14 ( 213°) 2009 Jul 30 00:09 ( 213°) 10:04 ( 212°) 20:00 ( 213°) 2009 Jul 31 05:55 ( 212°) 15:50 ( 212°) 2009 Aug 01 01:46 ( 212°) 11:41 ( 212°) 21:37 ( 212°) 2009 Aug 02 07:32 ( 212°) 17:27 ( 211°) 2009 Aug 03 03:23 ( 212°) 13:18 ( 211°) 23:13 ( 211°) 2009 Aug 04 09:09 ( 211°) 19:04 ( 211°) 2009 Aug 05 05:00 ( 211°) 14:55 ( 211°) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Initial forecast of July 19 =========================== WinJUPOS 8.1.8 (Jupiter), C.M. transit times, 2009.07.19 19:17 Object longitude: L2 = 216,0° + 0,0000°/d * (T - 2009 Aug 01,5) Time interval: 2009 Jul 19,0 ... 2009 Aug 01,0 Output format: Date UT (C.M. of System 2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2009 Jul 19 06:09 ( 216°) 16:05 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 20 02:00 ( 216°) 11:56 ( 216°) 21:52 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 21 07:47 ( 216°) 17:43 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 22 03:38 ( 216°) 13:34 ( 216°) 23:30 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 23 09:25 ( 216°) 19:21 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 24 05:16 ( 216°) 15:12 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 25 01:08 ( 216°) 11:03 ( 216°) 20:59 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 26 06:54 ( 216°) 16:50 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 27 02:45 ( 216°) 12:41 ( 216°) 22:37 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 28 08:32 ( 216°) 18:28 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 29 04:23 ( 216°) 14:19 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 30 00:15 ( 216°) 10:10 ( 216°) 20:06 ( 216°) 2009 Jul 31 06:01 ( 216°) 15:57 ( 216°) ----------------------------------------------------------------